The signals are increasingly clear

Domenico Giannone   Jasper McMahon   Lucrezia Reichlin   Saverio Simonelli
2 May 2012                                                                                                             

According to official statistics, the UK and Europe are heading for recession, while the US is recovering. This has led some to suggest that European economies are moving in the opposite direction to the US. This column, written by the co-founders of Now-Casting, presents new now-casting estimates that put Europe and the US even further apart. 

According to the NBER (2012), the last recession ended in June of 2009. CEPR (2012) dates the end of the recession in the Eurozone in the same quarter. For the UK, there is no established chronology but a visual inspection of Figure 1 shows that the recession and the subsequent recovery in the three economies have been highly synchronised. 

Read more 

30 April 2012 

The global employment situation is alarming, says a new United Nations report released today, which also warns that recovery is not expected any time soon. 

The World of Work Report 2012: Better Jobs for a Better Economy – published by the UN International Labour Organization (ILO) – says that around 50 million jobs are still missing compared to the situation that existed before the global economic crisis. 

It also warns that the global jobs crisis is likely to get worse due to several factors, including the fact that many governments, especially in advanced economies, have shifted their priority to a combination of fiscal austerity and tough labour market reforms. 

Read more 

May 02, 2012 by Carlyle A. Thayer 

The ongoing standoff between the Philippines and China raises troubling questions about the response to Chinese territorial assertiveness in the South China Sea. 

The ongoing naval standoff between China and the Philippines at Scarborough Shoal clearly indicates the difficulties in constraining Beijing from unilaterally asserting its “indisputable sovereignty” over all of the islands, rocks, and adjacent waters in the South China Sea. 

The reality is that China’s actions in prolonging the standoff are a portent of the difficulties that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will face in trying to constrain China by negotiating a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. 

Read more 

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.6% in April 2012 according to a flash estimate issued by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.  It was 2.7% in March. 

The euro area (EA17) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 10.9% in March 2012, compared with 10.8% in February.  It was 9.9% in March 2011.  The EU27 unemployment rate was 10.2% in March 2012, stable compared with February.  It was 9.4% in March 2011. 

In the fourth quarter of 2011, compared with the third quarter of 2011, the business investment rate decreased in both the euro area (EA17) and the EU27.  In the euro area, the business profit share declined, as wage costs increased while value added fell slightly.  Business investment rate was down to 20.7% in the euro area and to 20.2% in the EU27. 

In the fourth quarter of 2011 compared with the third quarter of 2011, the household saving rate increased while the household investment rate remained almost unchanged in both the euro area (EA17) and the EU27.  In the euro area, household disposable income decreased by 0.4% in real terms, after -0.3% in the previous quarter.

Source: Delegation of the European Union to Australia: newsletter 335 

Strategic Weekly Analysis - 02 May 2012

Dear FDI supporters,

Welcome to the latest edition of the Strategic Weekly Analysis. This week, FDI analyses the following: 

·         Race for Arctic Energy Resources Ramps Up

·         Energy Developments and Security in the East Mediterranean

·         Russia’s Afghanistan Bind

·         Maldives: Democracy, Back In Transition Mode?

·         Implications of India's Long-Range Missile Capabilities

·         Iran: New Talks or More of the Same?

·         UN Chief and EU Foreign Affairs Boss Complete Burma Visits

·         Australia to Join ‘Sanitation and Water for All’ Partnership

·         “Landgrab” Report Highlights Failings 

Alternatively, the SWA can also be downloaded directly from the FDI website at http://www.futuredirections.org.au/publications.html. FDI welcomes comment on both SWA articles and Strategic Analysis Papers. Comments, as well as suggestions for future articles, can be forwarded by e-mail to lluke@futuredirections.org.au. 

Kind regards,

Leighton G. Luke

Manager

Indian Ocean Research Programme

Future Directions International (FDI) Pty Ltd

ABN 71 092 965 485

Tel:  +61 8 9486 1046

Fax:  +61 8 9486 4000

Website: www.futuredirections.org.au

Office Address: Desborough House, Suite 2, 1161 Hay Street, West Perth WA 6005

Postal Address: PO Box 769, West Perth WA 6872 Australia 

Associate Paper - Indonesia Must Choose Its Direction In 2012 

Dear FDI supporters, 

Future Directions International is pleased to release its latest Associate Paper: Indonesia Must Choose Its Direction In 2012. 

In this paper, FDI Associate Yasmi Adriansyah explores some of the key challenges confronting Indonesia as the year progresses and the 2014 general election draws ever closer. The paper can also be downloaded directly from the Future Directions International website at: http://futuredirections.org.au/publications.html. 

If you have any comments on the paper, or would like to contribute to the work of FDI, please feel free to contact me on +61 8 9486 1046 or e-mail lluke@futuredirections.org.au. 

Kind regards,

Leighton G. Luke

Manager

Indian Ocean Research Programme

Future Directions International (FDI) Pty Ltd

ABN 71 092 965 485

Tel:  +61 8 9486 1046

Fax:  +61 8 9486 4000

Website: www.futuredirections.org.au

Office Address: Desborough House, Suite 2, 1161 Hay Street, West Perth WA 6005

Postal Address: PO Box 769, West Perth WA 6872 Australia 

Strategic Analysis Paper: Potent and Capable: India's Transformational 21st Century Navy 

Dear FDI supporters, 

Please find enclosed the South and West Asia Programme’s latest Strategic Analysis Paper, titled: Potent and Capable: India’s Transformational 21^st Century Navy  

The essay provides a detailed overview of India’s unprecedented naval modernisation programme and specifically examines the India’s emerging strategic doctrine, how it links to the development of the Indian Navy’s future capabilities and what this will ultimately mean for India. 

The interview can also be downloaded directly from the Future Directions International website at: http://www.futuredirections.org.au/publications/south-west-asia.html 

If you have any comments please feel free to contact me on +61 8 9486 1046 or e-mail sdesilva@futuredirection.org.au

Sincerely,

Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe

Research Manager, South & West Asia Programme

Future Directions International (FDI)

ABN 71 092 965 485

Office    : +61 8 9486 1046

Fax        : +61 8 9486 4000

Website :  www.futuredirections.org.au

Office Address: Desborough House, Suite 2, 1161 Hay Street, West Perth WA 6005

Postal Address: PO Box 769, West Perth, WA 6872 Australia